Peak Oil, Peak Food, Peak Trouble

Feeling cheerful? This should help.

After the rise comes the decline. But why is this become an issue linked to political orientation? It is supposed that left-leaning types predict the gloomy picture, while those on the right imagine it's all a lot of...imagining, deriding the pessimistic doomsayers. Surely this is a topic where we should listen to scientists rather than politicians.

The problem with charts like these is that they give the illusion of certainty. It can make the future seem inevitable, and leave us feeling powerless. We can't save the world, but we can do a backyard blitz, so we'll do that instead.

The Club of Rome was founded in 1968, with direly predicting the depletion of global resources. Their depressing predictions are now dismissed by many since they haven't happened yet. Not yet. Meanwhile the world's population has doubled in my lifetime, and is set to double again by 2050. Opinions are greatly divided, but we are probably at or about "peak oil" right now; the point at which easily extracted reserves are depleted. Global food stocks are at a 30 year low, down from 200 million tonnes in the late 1990s to 110-115 million tonnes today (C.Times May '08).

Since you're reading this, I guess you're sitting in front of a computer. Much of that is made from plastic, which mostly comes from oil. It, and the other components were transported from around the globe to you using oil.

This morning, the Sorbelene-based moisturiser on your face was made from oil (packaged in plastic which came from...oil). Your cereal breakfast was grown in pastures fertilised by oil derivatives *, delivered to your supermarket, and brought home....using oil.

The extent of our civilisation's dependency on oil is so vast it's hard to comprehend. Even harder to comprehend is our blind-sight of the problem. I wonder if we are like the passengers on the Titanic, warm, comfortable, and sipping Martinis. Lulled by the collective complacency of fellow passengers, confident that it's all under control.

But if you're an optimist, and are sure there's oil to burn, I'm wondering how long we wait.

* Here is a discussion on oil & fertilizers.

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